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Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China’s stronger-than-expected steel production, combined with an aggressive restocking of inventory levels and the country’s ports had driven iron ore prices well above expectations.
Iron ore stocks have also spiked as analysts upgrade their price forecasts for the commodity on the back of another unexpected recovery. The record prices of last May tumbled unexpectedly fast to under $US100 a tonne, and currently iron ore is taking the pundits again by surprise with a new run that now has it back near $US150/t. The sentiment is apparently still driven by signals about increased infrastructure spending in China and upgraded price forecasts. Nevertheless, and apart from the price of the commodity itself, it is very important that we still see the good fundamentals and dynamics there, which in any case support our overall optimism and hopes that better and more stable freight rates for Capes must be around the corner.
Looking at Australian iron ore exports to China, it is positive to see they remained robust last month despite the backdrop of rising market prices due to multiple factors including weather disruption and labor “shortage” concerns. Industry analysts said the proportion of Australian iron ore in China’s total iron ore imports may be reduced to below 60 percent in 2022 for the first time since 2015, especially as China is still diversifying its sources of supplies and deepening industry upgrading while pursuing low-carbon targets at the same time.
The price of iron ore was also reflected in the rising imports in China in recent weeks, and perhaps it is more important to keep an eye on inventory levels as well. According to data from industry sources, the total inventory of iron ore imported by steel mills across China reached about 117.57 million tons this week, an increase of 470,200 tons from the previous month. Of course it is always possible that the price increase could simply and perhaps only be related to seasonal speculation itself.
Overall since 2015, China’s iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil have accounted for nearly 80 percent of all imports, of which imports from Australia have exceeded 60 percent. Bilateral relations have soured again recently due to Australia’s attitude toward China, which has caused disruption for trade activities. Iron ore exports are still among the few remaining products that are still in high demand in China, partly due to the needs of the domestic construction sector. However, the expectation is that import proportion from Australia in 2022 is likely to drop below 60 percent, having been 61.6 percent in 2021 and 62.5 percent in 2020. We also hear a lot about the change in policy and the potential domestic supply of iron ore in China, not sure however if all this is something that will really re-shape the market dynamics in the future.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- The University of Queensland
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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