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Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022. 
 
Earnings generation should slow down as selling prices ease from the highs of 2021, while cash accumulation from 2021 should support adequate rating headroom for most companies. 
 
Fitch expects operating profiles to remain the key driver for most ratings. Capex is likely to remain low as organic growth is still slow. Investments might pick up as some miners may continue to look at diversification away from thermal coal to ease out the rising ESG considerations from various funding sources. 
 
Fitch revised up its 2022 price assumptions for Australia Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal in November 2021, followed by an upward revision of our Indonesian 4,200kcal price estimates, based on the sector’s evolving supply and demand dynamics. Most coal producers are on Stable Outlook due to wider rating headroom amid strong earnings forecasts into 2022. 
Source: Fitch Ratings


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