Wednesday, 24 November 21 MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions and monetary easing by states to support the economic recovery has in turn triggered concerns over the trajectory of growth from now on.
According to the Financial Times, the consumer price index in the United Sates and the eurozone rose at the fastest pace in 30 years. The global growth rate is expected to come at 5.9% this year, lower than the 6% that the International Monetary Fund predicted in July, but the fund expects inflation to ease in the next year, albeit the path is uncertain as the labor participation rate has yet to catch up, implying that higher inflation will linger some more until that happens.
Upward pressure on commodities has benefitted dry bulk freight rates up to now, but countries are deploying polices to mitigate price rises, with the example of China trying to rein in the coal surge by increasing domestic supply ahead of the heating season, and the United States announcing a while ago the release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserves in cooperation with other countries, namely China, Japan, India, South Korea and the United Kingdom.
The move will be unprecedented as major countries try to tame crude oil prices after OPEC countries rejected US calls for increased production. The move would put these countries against OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, for control of global oil markets and could prompt the group to reassess plans to revive oil supplies at their next meeting in early December, with potential implication on the tankers market that had just started to show signs of life.
While the macro uncertainty and above policies, along with the slow-down in China’s construction sector have been weighing down on dry over the past month– the market is showing signs of stabilization during the current week. It looks like the fundamental drivers of coal demand, increased congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a rebound in iron ore exports are still there to support the market off the recent bottom, before we head into the seasonal weakness of the first quarter.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Inflation is the word that has dominated the meetings of foreign leaders and finance ministers in recent weeks, as rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions and monetary easing by states to support the economic recovery has in turn triggered concerns over the trajectory of growth from now on. 
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