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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Monday, 27 September 21
CHINESE COAL FIRMS MEET TO ADDRESS WINTER SUPPLY CHALLENGES - CNBC
Major Chinese coal producers are trying to resolve supply shortages and curb price rises as the country’s winter consumption peak approaches, ...
Saturday, 25 September 21
HIGH STAKES FOR ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK’S AMBITIOUS COAL POWER RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
Implementation challenges could block funding for other equally important high impact clean energy funding strategies
In the lead up ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
LONGER COAL CONTRACTS MAY REIN IN PRICES - ECNS
In China’s coal sector that has been marred recently by price surges, regional authorities and related enterprises should ensure the fuel con ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
BALTIC INDEX HITS 12-YEAR PEAK ON FIRMER VESSELS RATES - REUTERS
The Baltic Exchange’s main dry bulk sea freight index rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday to a 12-year high, buoyed by higher rat ...
Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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