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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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