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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 23 December 21
COAL DEMAND TO PEAK IN INDIA BY 2030, WILL BACK UP RENEWABLES: NITI REPORT - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal will remain India’s mainstay energy source and the country will shape global demand this decade, two reports have said a month after the ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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