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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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