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Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
 Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity at the rate it’s achieved for the last three months, coal-fired power could peak in the 2023-24 financial year, and increased solar generation alone could meet the country’s growing electricity requirements in subsequent years.
India’s electricity demand has surged and slumped in recent months as the economy revives in fits and starts, but the fact is that coal-fired power is increasingly sensitive to the performance of renewable energy.
Coal has effectively become India’s swing producer of electricity, rising to new peaks in periods when demand is high and renewable power low, but slumping deeply when demand falls and renewable energy’s contribution rises.
In recent months thermal generation has swung between a daily low of just over 2.0 terawatt hours (TWh) on August 1 (when renewable energy and hydroelectricity provided 38% of India’s electricity), to as high as 3.2 TWh just over two weeks later when renewable energy and hydro made a smaller though still impressive 25% contribution to the grid.
But while the variable nature of renewable energy is well known and the financial fortunes of coal-fired power are increasingly tied to its generation level, it is a recent change in a different number that may prove decisive in determining how soon coal’s contribution to India’s electricity reaches its peak. That number is the rate at which the country is installing new solar capacity.
Calendar year 2020’s pandemic conditions saw new solar installations fall to an average of just 411 megawatts (MW) per month, compared to 665MW per month as the average since January 2017. But since May this year there has been a very strong rebound. A total of 1,248MW of solar capacity was added in June, followed by an additional 1,605MW in July, rising again to 1,672MW in August.
This average of 1,508MW per month for the last quarter does more than simply double the long-term installation rate – it shows just how close India could be to capping thermal generation. If this installation rate continued, solar capacity would reach 109 gigawatts (GW) by March 2024, generating some 87 TWh of additional power annually, enough to meet all of India’s electricity generation increase, based on the latter’s 5.7% annual growth rate over the decade to 2019.
Some other adjustments would be needed if coal-fired power were to peak and subsequently decline. Daily peak demand has been rising faster than daily energy, meaning that thermal plants would increasingly have to be deployed to meet the daily peak, as would hydroelectric generators, without increasing their overall output. Additional pumped storage and India’s first set of grid-scale batteries would also support the peak, along with the development of a time-of-day pricing structure to incentivise demand response management by industry and consumers.
Whether the actual installation rate matches, falls short of, or exceeds this rate will come down to the determination of the Indian government. The current rate would comfortably meet the 60GW ground-mounted component of the 2022 125GW renewable target, but not quite match the average rate needed to hit the 280GW solar component of the 450GW 2030 goal.
What the last few months clearly demonstrate, however, is India’s ability to now accelerate the installation of grid-scale solar fast enough to cap coal-fired power before the middle of the decade and potentially to see a gradual coal generation decline from that point on.
The recent lift in rooftop solar installs, along with increased development of wind and rounding out those nearly completed hydro power projects to which India is committed could make our timeline here conservative indeed!
By Tim Buckley, Director Energy Finance Studies South Asia at IEEFA
and Dr Charles Worringham, researcher and contributor at IEEFA
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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