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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
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