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Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
 U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline
Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soared in international markets. These high prices should significantly boost revenues and profits at coal mining companies—a remarkable turnaround from just a year ago, when the world’s pandemic-induced economic swoon sent export prices and demand tumbling.
Yet by most measures—including coal production, consumption for electric power, mining jobs and coming coal-plant retirements—the sector will barely rebound to 2019 levels, a far more telling comparison than to 2020, the worst year for U.S. coal in decades.
U.S. coal production
Take U.S. coal production, the broadest measure of the industry’s condition. This year’s output is expected to be 588 million tons, up 10% from 2020’s 535 million tons, according to October’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration. That seems like a decent rebound, but it’s actually 118 million tons lower than in 2019, and, other than 2020, would be the lowest since 1971.
Coal use for electric power
Coal use for electric power is up over last year, too. The EIA’s latest outlook expects an 84-million-ton, or 19%, increase, to 521 million tons, compared with the 437 million tons used in 2020. Once again, this appears to be a substantial recovery—except that it’s lower than 2019’s 539 million tons. This is significant because more than 90% of the coal consumed in the U.S. is used to generate electricity.
This poor recovery in coal use looks even worse considering the price of natural gas rose 83% from $2.47 per thousand cubic feet in the third quarter of 2019 to $4.53 in the third quarter of this year. And, as IEEFA has noted about the energy transition in U.S. electricity markets, coal and gas together have not gained market share, and are instead continuing to lose ground to renewables. This is a trend that will continue for the foreseeable future, given the ongoing construction boom in utility-scale solar and wind. If anything, high prices for coal and gas, if sustained, are likely to cause the switch to renewables to accelerate.
Coal’s domestic market continues to shrink, too. More than 80GW of coal-plant retirements—more than one-third of the current operating capacity—are already scheduled to be retired by the end of 2030. IEEFA estimates these units used 166 million tons of coal in 2019, which would cut demand to about 375 million tons by the end of the decade, and this does not account for any new retirement announcements that could be made. On top of this, the remaining coal plants are likely to run less and less. EIA data shows the capacity factor for coal plants (a measure of how much of their generating potential is actually used) fell from 62.8% in 2011 to just 40.2% in 2020. IEEFA estimates that even a modest decline in capacity factors at the plants expected to operate after 2030 could result in a further loss of more than 80 million tons, bringing the total drop in coal demand from the U.S. power sector to about 250 million tons. In other words, coal’s largest U.S. market could shrink as much as 50% in just nine years.
U.S. coal mining jobs continue to decline
Another sign that coal mining isn’t recovering is the scale and timing of job losses. Nearly 24,000 jobs have been cut—a 29% decline—since 2019, when an average of 81,478 people were working for either coal-mine operators or contractors. This includes a loss of more than 6,100 jobs between 2020 and the first half of 2021, according to the latest figures from the Mine Safety and Health Administration, leaving just 57,497 workers in coal mining. That’s just half the number employed as recently as 2014.
Exports
With surging prices for coal in international markets—a complete turnaround from a year ago—coal exports should be a bright spot for American producers. No doubt for the companies that are exporting, there will be a significant boost to their bottom lines, because volumes are set to grow by 34% this year compared with 2020, to 92.6 million tons. Yet even here, this only returns exports to the 2019 level of 93.8 million tons, and the EIA outlook sees almost no further growth in 2022, when it expects 94.8 million tons to be sold abroad.
It is not surprising that coal has staged at least some comeback over 2020—by many measures the worst year for the industry in decades. What is surprising is that the rebound has fallen short of even 2019 in the critical measures of production, consumption by the power sector and jobs. This year’s high coal prices are likely to improve the weak finances at many mining companies, at least temporarily, but they won’t change the sector’s long-term decline. If anything, the high cost of coal is making the economics of switching to lower-cost renewables and storage even more compelling, and could result in utilities and other power producers accelerating their shift away from using coal.
By Seth Feaster
Data Analyst
IEEFA Energy
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Tuesday, 07 December 21
COAL FIRMS SEE SHARE PRICES SURGE MONDAY, AFTER GOVERNMENT READJUSTS CONTRACT PRICES - GLOBAL TIMES
Share prices of China’s coal enterprises jumped on Monday on the A-share market following a nationwide adjustment to annual thermal coal pric ...
Monday, 06 December 21
CHINA SETS 2022 ANNUAL THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 700 YUAN/T - MEDIA: REUTERS
China’s top economic planner has proposed to set annual thermal coal prices for 2022 at between 550 yuan and 850 yuan ($86-$133) per tonne, a ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
BUMI RECORDED US$ 666.18 MILLION AS REVENUE IN THE 3RD QUARTER, UP 13.31% YOY
PT Bumi Resources Tbk and its subsidiaries have recorded a surge in revenue in the third quarter of 2021. BUMI has recorded US$ 666.18 million as r ...
Thursday, 02 December 21
CHINA'S COAL CRUNCH IS OVER, BUT PRICES ARE STILL TOO HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal crisis has largely been resolved with gains in both production and stockpiles sufficient to ensure power supplies over winter.
...
Wednesday, 01 December 21
2022 OUTLOOK: INDONESIAN COAL MINING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has a neutral outlook on the Indonesian coal sector for 2022.
Earnings generation should slow down as selling pr ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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