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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
 Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten images of gasoline queues in the 1970s, but increasingly describes the spike in global fossil fuel prices. A handful of commenters eagerly lay the blame on renewable energy, which they claim has distracted the world’s attention from investments in oil, gas, and coal production that could have calmed markets.
But a sober analysis suggests that today’s energy price crunch has nothing to do with renewables. After all, price spikes aren’t unique to energy. Computer chips, lumber, copper, and iron ore are among the many commodities and products that have seen global price spikes and shortages this year. As the COVID-19 pandemic raged and then eased—alternately slamming the brakes and flooring the accelerator of the global economy—volatility became the rule rather than the exception.
A close look at the surge in global coal prices is instructive. Prices for some low-grade thermal coals have quadrupled on international markets since last year’s lows. COVID-induced volatility bears much of the blame. But price spike also has its roots in the world’s largest coal market, China, which produces (and consumes) half the world’s coal and meets 60 percent of its energy needs from the mineral.
Over the past year, China has experienced domestic coal shortfalls and shrinking stockpiles that forced the country to boost its imports. Given the country’s outsized appetite for coal, even a modest boost in imports quickly sent seaborne coal prices skyrocketing. The recipe for China’s coal shortages had at least five key ingredients, none related to the country’s renewables policies:
A mine safety crackdown. The Chinese coal mining sector has been a risky business. The state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that 225 coal miners died in China during 2020 in 122 accidents. But in the wake of a cluster of fatalities, federal authorities launched a major safety inspection effort in November 2020. The heightened scrutiny was blamed for a slowdown in production that began in April, a month after China boosted penalties for mine accidents. The prospect of jail time made mining executives reluctant to boost output even as supplies tightened.
Curbs on overproduction. China’s coal mining sector had struggled over much of the past decade with overcapacity that flooded markets with cheap coal—making it hard for many firms to find profits. Last November, just as China’s government was cracking down on coal mine safety, it also stepped up inspections for quota violations—once again making it risky for mining companies to boost supplies.
An anti-corruption campaign in Inner Mongolia. One of China’s most sparsely populated provinces, Inner Mongolia produces roughly one-quarter of the nation’s coal. President Xi Jinping announced in March that the government would investigate coal industry corruption in the region in a campaign that would “never end.” (The campaign focused, in part, on companies producing more coal than their quotas.) Top officials in the regional government have been sent to jail for more than a decade, with one given a suspended death sentence. In early 2021, the government was investigating almost 700 corruption cases involving about 1,000 people. The campaign, which was expanded across the country, also encouraged coal mining firms to curb their production to avoid becoming entangled in an investigation.
A halt to Australian coal imports. Tensions between Australia and its largest trading partner heated up last year, largely due to China’s territorial claims in the Pacific Ocean and the Australian government’s call for a “weapons inspector”-type investigation of the origins of the COVID-19 virus. China responded by blocking Australian coal imports in November 2020. The squabble led Beijing to seek out other markets for coal imports from Indonesia, Russia, the United States and South Africa. The shift contributed to a tripling in the price of lower-grade Indonesia coal over the summer.
Weather: Too cold, too hot, and too wet. An unusually cold 2020-21 winter in North Asia prompted blackouts in some regions. At least nine grid systems in northern provinces recorded record demand in early January. Summer heat waves continued to pressure the coal supply. Now winter approaches, and major power plants reported having about a 10-day stockpile of coal, roughly half of last year’s total. The country, desperate to boost coal consumption, faces a new weather-related obstacle: Record-breaking floods have shut down 60 mines in Shanxi province, a region that produces 30 percent of China’s coal.
These factors, together with COVID, helped precipitate a domestic coal crunch in China that quickly spread around the planet. Those who would blame the growth of renewables for China’s coal shortages are grasping at straws. If anything, ramping up investments in renewables would ease the country’s reliance on volatile, unpredictable fossil fuel supplies.
As for China, so for the world. Until the planet completes its transition to a renewable energy-based economy, supply and demand shocks—such as the ones currently traveling around the globe—will be a fact of life.
By Clark Williams-Derry
Energy Policy Analyst
IEEFA
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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