We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
|
|
|
Showing 486 to 490 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
