We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
|
|
|
Showing 441 to 445 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
