We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
|
|
|
Showing 871 to 875 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
