We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to see that dry bulk Q4 high seasonality has returned after at least 3 years of underperformance, driving also the Q4’21 and Q1’22 FFA curve to multi year highs. Back in May, we had explained why we thought a higher Cape market peak during 2H2021 was in the cards, with fundamentals recently being boosted by accelerating restocking demand, near record high Capesize congestion at Pacific discharge ports and a global energy supply deficit leading to scrambling for coal supplies globally. In the present insight, we are briefly addressing some of the market points that are likely to impact the direction of freight rates looking forward.
Iron Ore restocking to be in full swing during Q4 regardless of China’s crude steel production contraction. Q1 2022 Risks: Slow-down in construction during winter and in view of China’s Winter Olympics, exacerbated by high energy costs. China’s property developers slowing down land purchases amid deleveraging efforts
The primary force behind the crude steel production decline in the short term is the severe coking coal /coke and power shortage forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards. Cuts are expected to intensify from November 15th to the end of the year as a 1st stage and then through March 2022, as per government’s pledges. Even if most of the targeted steel production cuts materializes through Sep-Dec 2021, probabilities that they will immediately translate into a decline in iron ore requirements are low, as 1) the iron ore restocking process is directly connected to iron ore seaborne supplies which are the strongest during Q4 – the decline in iron ore prices from multi year highs in May 2021 is currently facilitating the restocking process supporting the purchasing power of steel mills – steel mills margins remain strong due to the diverging trends in steel and iron ore prices, despite the surge in coking coal costs 2) Skyrocketing energy costs are likely to negatively impact more the scrap related steel production process during the quarter (Electric Arc Furnaces are higher energy consumers) vs Blast Furnaces (more iron ore requirements). When iron ore restocking will be completed, this will be a negative signal for new iron ore procurement, likely during the 1H2022. On this note, iron ore inventories at China’s ports have increased by +9.2 million tons since the end of Q2 and there is more room for them to inflate further by the end of the year.
Inflationary pressures on the energy complex supportive to dry bulk freight rates in the short-term. Q1 2022 Risks: La Nina conditions might bring a colder winter supporting coal consumption but also wetter conditions in Australia from December to April increasing risks of exports disruptions
Natural gas prices have raised the price ceiling higher for the whole energy complex and while international coal prices have hit record high levels, the price gap with natural gas continues to incentivize substitution in power generation globally and Europe particularly. The competition for securing coal supplies in both basins has inflated $ per ton freight across major coal routes to 12-year highs – which we think is sustainable - as the % of freight in coal prices is still low (approx. 13%) compared to 2009-2010 (approx. 22%).
China’s domestic coal output is expected to increase in the next months on a series of government measures to boost supplies, although the incremental volumes during Q4 are not expected to be sufficient to cover the supply deficit. The continuous decline in coal inventories at major power plants and expectations for a cold winter continue to indicate increasing thermal coal import needs for restocking in the winter heating season. Demand for coal imports is further enhanced by India’s urgency to restock as inventories at power plants have dropped to the lowest level since 2017 at 7.3 million tons but at a record low in terms of days of consumption i.e. just 4 days, as per latest data from India’s Central Electricity Authority.
High bunker prices are supportive to dry bulk freight rates as we had discussed in our May insight, likely to exacerbate fleet inefficiencies across the basins, with the Atlantic expected to benefit more in the short term. Talks about demand destruction from high oil prices will be substantiated when manufacturers’ profitability and consumers’ purchasing power starts to be negatively impacted with costs curves rising upwards. This is likely to take place at higher prices than the current $80/bbl in our view and those would have to be sustained during the quarter.
By Tamara Apostolou, Research Director
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 06 August 20
SUPRAMAX MARKET CONTINUED SIDEWAYS TREND, AND LITTLE INSPIRING NEWS APPEAR - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is presently a small correction in rates, but overall levels are up from previous week mainly due to increased demand in the Eas ...
Thursday, 06 August 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITING BIDS FOR MIN 3,600-MAX 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) inviting bids for 80,000 Tons (MT) Min 3,600~Max 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal f ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
NO NEW MINING LICENSES - A REMINDER TO GOVERNORS IN INDONESIA - SSEK
Indonesia’s acting Director General of Mining and Coal (“DGMC”) has issued a letter to the country’s provincial Governors t ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
AUGUST 2020 HBA HITTING ITS LOWEST LEVELS IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of August plunged 30.73% YoY, hitting its lowest levels in history and highlighting ...
Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and de ...
|
|
|
Showing 841 to 845 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
