COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 October 2021
The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 49.42 in September 2020, to a peak of US$ 161.63 in October 2021, as the demand for coal took hold.
Supply disruptions, a drought in China and rebounding electricity demand have driven up the market for thermal coal, making thermal coal one of this year’s best-performing fuel. Since the September 2020, the price of 6322 GAR coal - the benchmark for the Indonesian Coal Price Reference - has climbed 227.05% per cent to above US$161 a tonne, its highest level since January 2009.
Coal analysts forecast that, coal supplies to fall faster than the fall of demand, due to environmental policies. The present environmental policies will result in weakening supply, as banks refuse to fund new coal mine projects, which leads to lower output compared to hike of demand. However, the analysts are also forecasting that the China and India will continue to import coal for the next decade which keeps the demand high.
According to Bloomberg, the era of cheap natural gas is over as Prices Surge by 1,000%, giving way to an age of far more costly energy that will create ripple effects across the global economy.
The Indonesia coal price reference increased 7.73% per cent month on month. The Indonesia coal price reference for the month of October 2021 declared at US$161.63 for exports. The selling price of coal for the domestic power plants, which is supplying power to state-owned electricity company (Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), is still capped at $70 per Ton for October 2021 delivery.
Y-O-Y : Up US$ 110.63 | 216.92%
Y-T-M : Up US$ 85.79 | 113.12%
M-O-M : Up US$ 11.60 | 7.73%
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal in October 2021 loading by US$ 11.60 per ton compared to September 2021 price.
The declared Indonesian thermal coal price reference for October 2021 delivery is 227.05 per cent higher compared to that in September 2020 price.
An increase or decrease in four coal indices such as Indonesia Coal Index (ICI), Platts-5900, Newcastle Export Index (NEX) and Global coal Newcastle Index (GCNC) will cause an increase or decrease in Indonesian coal price reference every month, as HBA is linked to those coal indices.
The coal price reference in Indonesia was established to fulfill the requirement of mining Law 04/2009 and ministerial decree No.17/2010. In addition to that, it aims to increase government revenue from royalties from coal producers.
The declared Indonesia thermal coal reference price (or called HBA) for September 2020 was the lowest in 154 months or since launching of HBA by the government of Indonesia. The royalties and taxes will be calculated based on this declared HPB.
Indonesian coal benchmark price for October 2021 was calculated based on calorific value of 6,322 kcal/kg (GAR), stated to be using a formula based on the September 2021 index average of ICI-1 (Indonesia Coal Index) 25 per cent, Platts-5900 25 per cent, NEX (Newcastle Export Index) 25 per cent, and GC (globalCoal Index) 25 per cent and its was calculated considering coal with GCV (GAR) 6,322 kcal/kg, Total Moisture (arb) 8.00%, Total Sulphur 0.8% (arb), Ash Content 15 % (arb) and delivery free on Board (FOB) Vessel basis and apply to spot contract, delivery between 1- 31 October 2021 or until publish an new Coal Price Reference (HBA).
The government of Indonesia is publishing a monthly coal price reference (HBA & HPB) since February 2009 to be used by coal producers for all spot as well as term contracts.
However, the official implementation of HBA was commenced since September 2011 and according to government regulation, the coal benchmark price must be used by the holders of production operation IUPs, special production operation IUP's, and CCoWs as a reference in determining the coal selling price for a particular period.
The declared HBA in this month is valid for the spot price (loading on or before 31 October 2021 or until issuing an new HBA), while (as per previous HBA note) as for term price (up to 12 months’ supply), the average reference price (HPB) of the previous three months will be used to determine the selling price. (A 50 per cent of latest month's HPB (the current month), a 30% one-month prior HPB and a 20% of two-month prior HPB).
The government used to declare the price marker for eight brands of Indonesia's coal, which were most commonly traded in the market. Those eight brands act as the benchmark and used to calculate other 69 coal types with a quality similar to the coal price markers. However this time, the government was issued price for HBA and no HPB prices was published.
COALspot.com, used its own calculator which is developed based on HBA/HPB formula and terms and condition declared by DGoMC to calculate HPB prices for eight major brands and for other types of coals. The government has stopped declaring formulas or methodologies that used to calculate either HBA or HPB. COALspot.com now publishing HPB and other coal prices based on HBA declared in this month.
Click here for details of Indonesian coal price reference since January 2009.(cs).
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