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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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