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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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