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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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