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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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