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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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