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Thursday, 23 September 21
RECORD-HIGH GAS PRICES AFFECT MANY EUROPEAN CORPORATE SECTORS - FITCH RATINGS
 Record-high natural gas prices are putting pressure on supply chains of many European corporate sectors, including non-integrated energy suppliers, fertiliser producers and consumer goods companies, Fitch Ratings says. Smaller companies in these industries are under the most pressure, while larger and more diversified issuers rated by Fitch are better positioned to mitigate the impact. Gas prices could remain high until the end of the winter heating season, given low levels of natural gas in European storage facilities. However, we expect prices to moderate once seasonal demand reduces.
High gas prices and working capital fluctuations have already caused several non-integrated UK gas suppliers (not rated by Fitch) to ask for state support in fulfilling their supply obligations to customers.
The Spanish government has introduced a levy on low-carbon power producers to support smaller suppliers.
Supply is typically a small part of larger Fitch-rated integrated utilities in Europe, which are able to pass costs on to most customer groups, or hedge. Although we expect higher gas prices to increase regulatory risks, the rated utilities’ diversification by jurisdiction and business line, including electricity production and distribution networks, cushions the impact. The unfolding situation in the European gas market may further accelerate the energy transition in the utility sector towards renewables.
Fertiliser producers have been severely affected by rising gas prices. Gas is a key input in ammonia production, which is further used in urea and DAP production. Several ammonia plants in Europe have cut their output or have temporarily shut down operations. Larger Fitch-rated fertiliser producers with a global presence are able to continue production in other regions or source ammonia from third parties, limiting the impact. Producers may also seek to increase fertiliser prices to pass costs onto consumers.
Agriculture and food producers are affected by challenges in the fertiliser sector. Agribusinesses may face shortages in fertiliser supplies and increased prices, most likely increasing their costs in the next season’s harvest. However, meat processors and carbonated drinks manufacturers, particularly in the UK, already face disruptions due to CO2 shortages, which is a by-product of ammonia manufacturing and is used in meat and fizzy drinks production. Geographically diversified food and beverages producers are better positioned to mitigate such shortages.
The record-high prices in Europe are driven by increased demand (due to the wider economic recovery and weather-related factors), competition with Asia for LNG, and a limited supply response from Gazprom, Europe’s largest supplier, providing about a third of Europe’s gas. Prices have also risen due to market fears of a gas deficit during the winter heating season due to low European storage utilisation compared to previous years.
Utilisation at Gazprom-linked storage facilities (around 10% of European capacity) is particularly low, affecting average utilisation rates in Austria, Germany and the Netherlands. Furthermore, unlike September in recent years, Gazprom has not offered any meaningful volumes for delivery this or next year via its electronic sales platform (a sales channel for short-term gas deliveries, used in addition to sales under long-term contracts). Gazprom’s total exports should increase in 2021 but this is unlikely to be sufficient to re-balance the market. Starting the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is facing difficulties in obtaining necessary approvals from regulators in Europe, may affect the availability of additional gas volumes.
We have recently increased our short-term gas price assumptions. However, we expect a normalisation of demand and potential additional supplies to result in a return to mid-cycle pricing from 2023.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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