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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of collaboration, but at its core is an agreement to start consultations to help Australia acquire a fleet of nuclear-propelled submarines. Believe AUKUS is an interesting development in the context of the already intensified geopolitical tensions between Australia and China, which have already led to a shift in trading patterns, particularly as far as dry bulk trade is concerned.
In particular, China’s ban on Australian coal since Q42020 has triggered inefficiencies in coal trading, with wide price arbitrages developing between China and the rest of the world for both metallurgical coal used by the steel industry and thermal coal used in power generation. The supply tightness has been more severe on metallurgical coal, the price of which has surged to record high levels, with China scrambling for supplies simulateneously with the rest of the world, steel production of which continues to grow. Australia is the world’s largest met coal exporter (approx. 59.0% of global seaborne met coal exports) and 2nd thermal coal exporter (approx. 22.0% of global seaborne thermal coal exports). China’s coking coal imports from Australia have come down to zero YTD 2021 vs a more than 50% share in imports during the previous two years. Imports from Mongolia so far have failed to meet increased demand amid COVID related supply disruptions and China had to increase its met coal imports share from Russia and the West (particularly the US and Canada), the last traditionally being primariy origins of imports for Europe. On the other hand, Australia coking coal is absorbed by steel mills outside China, as global steel production excl. the latter is up 16.0+% y-o-y (YTD Jan-Jul) and Australia coking coal has turned out cheaper than US coking coal despite the overall price surge. This trade shift has increased ton-miles and dry bulk fleet inefficiencies supporting Atlantic freight rates higher for longer.
In the meantime, China’s policy pledge for emissions cuts seems to be further supporting ton-miles for dry bulk, despite the country’s crude steel production declining y-o-y over the past two months and iron ore price collapsing below $100/ton recently from $230/ton in mid-July. We believe that in the short term, the severe coking coal and coke shortage in China as a result of the above policies is forcing crude steel production to adjust downwards earlier, but is incentivizing purchases of cheaper iron ore particularly from the Atlantic.
Till recently, demand for cargoes of crucial raw materials like iron ore and coal have overall jumped this year, outpacing active fleet growth, particularly if congestion is factored in, as economies recover from the pandemic. As new market dynamics develop and shape a new post pandemic landscape, we want to believe that these will become new fundamentals that can continue to propel ultimately demand for seaborne transportation of dry bulk commodities in the long run.
By Christopher Whitty,
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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