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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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