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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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