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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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