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Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
 Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions due to thermal coal supply constraints in China.
Chinese regulations further tightening the mine safety requirements implemented earlier this year have reduced thermal coal production in the country despite strong demand driven by the economic recovery. Thermal power generation increased in China in January to July by 13.2% yoy, while non-power coal consumption increased by 7.7% yoy, causing rapid increases in coal prices. Coal inventories have been declining, even though import volumes increased in June and July.
The government has launched some mitigating actions, including re-opening open-pit mines capable of producing 67 million tonnes of coal per year, approving new production capacities and requesting mines increase production volumes. These measures, and seasonally weaker demand in September and October, should help moderate prices from the current high levels; however, we expect average domestic prices for 2021 to be higher than in our previous price deck.
Our increased price assumptions for the Chinese benchmark in 2022 and thereafter reflect structurally tighter supply, lower incentives to invest in new coal mines and an emerging trend of local governments and mining companies closing older coal mines in order to meet carbon-reduction targets. Furthermore, the central government has demonstrated its tolerance of high coal prices, while local governments in coal-producing regions are motivated to keep supply relatively tight.
The stronger domestic prices in China have also affected seaborne prices, despite China’s ban on coal imports from Australia. Trade flows have adjusted as a result, with China now importing more coal from Russia, Indonesia and other countries, with Australia now exporting more to India and Korea. We therefore have increased our 2021–2023 Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg assumptions. We have kept longer-term price assumptions for the Australian benchmark unchanged. We anticipate that pressures to reduce coal power generation in many key markets consuming Australian coal will eventually lessen coal demand and help normalise the seaborne prices.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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