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Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
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Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
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Kamsarmax 82 daily average @ 34,615
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Supramax 58 daily average @ 36,774
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Handysize 38 daily average @ 33,981
If at the beginning of the year 2021, around the period of Chinese Lunar Year, anyone would have predicted that by the middle of August during the peak of Northern Hemisphere summer, the market would have reached the above levels, everybody would laugh.
By the 4th of February 2021, the sub-Cape market had already spiked; the Panamax index was at 1,629 points and Supramax index at 1,139 points, with the first quarter of 2021 averaging well above Q42020 levels. The Capesize 5TC index averaged $17,054/day down -1.0% compared to Q42020, while the Panamax Tess 82 5TC index averaged $18,201 up +51.0% during the same period. Everyone at that time was surprised with the counter seasonal market rise driven by the smaller sizes, as well as the rise in asset values compared to September 2020 and commented that ships had gotten too expensive. Well, what can we say about the prices of today then?
In September 2020 a Panamax bc blt 2006 MV ELENA II with surveys due in q1 2021 had been concluded at low 8s. For comparison, in February MV AJAX got usd low 10s with surveys due promptly. As of the end of July, the 2007 blt MV CANEA got sold at rgn usd 17.7m.
We see similar asset value increases also in 2012 blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fttd getting mid-high 14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting as usd 16/low 16s by the end of January. As of end of June, an exact sister ship 2013blt MV KAGARA got sold at usd 22m and a 2014blt MV ORIENT GENESIS at 23m. Today these 2 ships would expect to get more.
For younger tonnage with an electronic engine built in Japan, we have not seen much activity, last concluded sale being in May, MV IOANNA L built 2017 Tsunesishi Zhoushan at about 29m, but clearly at same levels a potential buyer cannot do repeat deal and generally the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding for much better numbers and/or taking advantage of the lucrative daily earnings.
Even for the older units of about 20 years of age, owners now asking levels of about usd 12m or more for 2000/2001blt vessels. The calculations shipowners are making on such vessels is quite simple: They factor in how much the ship will earn basis today’s rates for one year i.e. about USD 7,5m then they add on top the demo value, about USD 5m. So the price comes in excess of USD12m. Similar asset value levels were observed in mid-2010, however it could also be a De Ja Vu of the year 2004, at the beginning of the previous boom, when 20 years old Panamaxes were fetching similar prices.
Let’s see how long the current boom will last. We all hope that It will last for long.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...
Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply
- Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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