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Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsFitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their credit metrics in 2021. However, the magnitude may vary as they have different risk exposure to coal-price fluctuations from factors such as fuel mix, business and geographical diversification, degree of integration and coal procurement strategy.
 
The Chinese benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price surged 66% yoy to CNY942/tonne by end-July 2021. Power gencos with higher capacity contribution from coal-fired power and less integration into the coal-mining business are more vulnerable to the coal price rally.
 
However, their coal procurement strategies may partly mitigate the adverse impact. Some power gencos maintain a high share of procurement via long-term contracts, which, to some extent, can mitigate their lack of a natural hedge from having an upstream coal-mining business. Power gencos in coastal regions also use more imported coal, which is generally cheaper than domestic coal, while power gencos with assets in proximity to low-cost inland coal mines benefit from lower coal price volatility and transport costs.
 
Fitch expects rated Chinese power gencos’ leverage to rise in 2021 due to lower operating cash flow, reflecting the coal-price-driven profit decline, and higher capex to fund renewable investments. We expect most of the rated gencos’ Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to remain intact due to their status as government-related entities or subsidiaries with IDRs linked directly or indirectly to the creditworthiness of their local governments under a top-down approach based on our Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria. However, standalone credit profile headroom for some entities may be reduced due to the elevated leverage.


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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...


Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions   “Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...


Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.    According ...


Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...


Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.   Mos ...


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