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Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsChina experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says in its latest China Power Watch report.
 
Total power consumption rose by 16.2% yoy in 1H21, or 7.6% based on a two-year CAGR, mainly driven by the industrial sector, which contributed 68% to total power consumption. This, together with higher residential demand on hot days, pushed peak loads to record high levels for many regional grids in 2Q21, when hydropower, the second largest contributor of power generation in China, was weak due to low waterflow. As a result, many places in China saw restrictions on power usage.
 
Tight power supply also reflects weak peak-load flexibility in China. However, China is stepping up efforts to improve the flexibility of its power system. Power generation companies (gencos) are upgrading thermal power plants and increasing peak shaving capacity. They are also investing in power storage projects to ensure stable power supply. The grid company State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC, A+/Stable) is increasing capex on grid infrastructure and we believe this will also enhance grid flexibility.
 
Coal prices also surged in 1H21 as market demand exceeded domestic production, which is further heightened by a 19.7% yoy decrease in import coal volume. High coal prices will squeeze gencos' profit due to lack of pass-through under the current tariff mechanism. Fitch expects this, together with power gencos' higher capex to fund renewable projects, will result in weakened 2021 credit metrics.


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