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Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline carries a massive stranded asset risk due to the collapse in the average utilisation rate of its coal-fired power fleet leading to an underestimation of financial risk for new projects, finds a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
There are currently 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power plants under construction and another 29GW of proposed projects under various stages of regulatory approval in India.
Author of the report, energy finance analyst Kashish Shah says the LCOE (levelised cost of energy) is the required tariff at which the net present value of the investment is zero.
“In other words, LCOE is the minimum required average tariff for a power asset to reach a breakeven return at the end of its life. Anything less than that suggests the asset is unviable.”
Shah found that the average utilisation rate of India’s coal-fired fleet has collapsed to a financially unsustainable low of 53% in financial year (FY) 2020/21 from a high of 78% a decade ago in FY2011/12.
For most coal plants in India, the LCOE is calculated with an assumption of utilisation factor of 85-90% throughout the life of the project. However, the LCOE turns out to be 64% higher with India’s average capacity utilisation factor sitting at ~55% for the last few years.
“The aspiration for further builds of coal capacity stems from the notion that coal is still ‘cheap’,” says Shah. “However, with tariffs now below Rs2/kilowatt hour (kWh) (US$27/MWh), solar power is cheaper than even the variable cost of coal-fired power and is ready to absorb incremental daytime demand.”
IEEFA’s report highlights that utilisation factors of coal-fired power plants have declined not just in India, but across major electricity markets including China, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (U.S.).
“With zero fuel costs, the marginal cost of generation for renewables is practically zero,” says Shah. “On the other hand, with increasing inflation in Indian domestic coal prices and railway transportation costs for coal, the gap between cost competitiveness of renewables versus coal is widening.
“This raises a serious concern about the viability of coal-fired power plants.
“Debt servicing for underutilised coal-fired power assets becomes extremely difficult and creates a liquidity crunch in the whole value chain. The financial stress then spills over to the power distribution sector as well as affecting India’s financial lending institutions. This further inhibits growth in other important segments of the power industry such as renewables and transmission infrastructure, which are extremely critical for India’s electricity sector transition.”
The report concludes that the financial viability of India’s proposed and under construction coal-fired power projects should be re-evaluated based on the right estimation of utilisation factors including LCOE and capacity factor to avoid further bloating of India’s non-performing assets.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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