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Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
EIAThe July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). The increase in economic activity and easing of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to rising energy use. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 7.4% in 2021 and by 5.0% in 2022. We based the U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook on forecasts by IHS Markit. 
 
EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook noted that, Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in June, up $5/b from May and $33/b higher than in June of last year. In the coming months, we expect that global oil production, largely from OPEC+ members (OPEC and partner nonmember countries), will increase by more than global oil consumption. We expect rising production will reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72/b during the second half of 2021 (2H21). However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply growth, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices. Based on these factors, we expect Brent to average $67/b in 2022.
 
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 617 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 78 MMst (15%) more than in 2020. Rising electricity demand for coal amid higher natural gas prices is driving this production increase. In 2022, we expect coal production to fall by 7 MMst (1%).
 
EIA also forecasts coal’s generation share to rise from 20% in 2020 to 24% this year but to fall to 22% next year. In th meantime, the share of electric power generation produced by natural gas in the United States will average 36% in both 2021 and 2022, down from 39% in 2020. Our forecast for the natural gas share as a generation fuel declines because we expect a higher delivered natural gas price for electricity generators. 


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Friday, 22 October 21
CHINA WANTS TO COOL COAL PRICES. SIMILAR MOVES FOR METALS, CRUDE FAILED - REUTERS
China’s latest attempt to lower runaway commodity prices, this time for thermal coal, is likely to follow a familiar pattern of initial succe ...


Friday, 22 October 21
HARD COAL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR SECURITY OF SUPPLY - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
- Hard coal remains an important factor for security of supply - Increase of around 35% in hard-coal-fired power generation in the first three ...


Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S COAL SHORTAGE TO EASE IN COMING MONTHS, INDUSTRY BODY SAYS - REUTERS
China’s coal shortage will likely ease in coming months, with domestic production and imports already showing signs of picking up, a coal ind ...


Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA'S RAW COAL OUTPUT DROPS IN SEPTEMBER - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output dropped 0.9 percent year on year to 330 million tonnes last month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) ...


Wednesday, 20 October 21
OVER-RELIANCE ON COAL IN OUR POWER MIX HURTING INDIA - LIVEMINT
In spite of the renewables push, coal still accounts for about 50% of India’s installed power capacity. That means a simultaneous demand and ...


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