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Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
EIAThe July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). The increase in economic activity and easing of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to rising energy use. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 7.4% in 2021 and by 5.0% in 2022. We based the U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook on forecasts by IHS Markit. 
 
EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook noted that, Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in June, up $5/b from May and $33/b higher than in June of last year. In the coming months, we expect that global oil production, largely from OPEC+ members (OPEC and partner nonmember countries), will increase by more than global oil consumption. We expect rising production will reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72/b during the second half of 2021 (2H21). However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply growth, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices. Based on these factors, we expect Brent to average $67/b in 2022.
 
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 617 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 78 MMst (15%) more than in 2020. Rising electricity demand for coal amid higher natural gas prices is driving this production increase. In 2022, we expect coal production to fall by 7 MMst (1%).
 
EIA also forecasts coal’s generation share to rise from 20% in 2020 to 24% this year but to fall to 22% next year. In th meantime, the share of electric power generation produced by natural gas in the United States will average 36% in both 2021 and 2022, down from 39% in 2020. Our forecast for the natural gas share as a generation fuel declines because we expect a higher delivered natural gas price for electricity generators. 


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Recent News

Saturday, 16 October 21
DESPITE HIGHER COAL PRICES, U.S. COAL RECOVERY LOOKS WEAK BY MOST MEASURES - IEEFA
U.S. coal sector is locked into a long-term sectoral decline Coal prices have surged to the highest level in years in the U.S., and have soare ...


Saturday, 16 October 21
COAL IS 'KING' AS GAS PRICES SOAR, TOTAL CEO SAYS - AND IT’S BACKFIRING ON CLEANER ENERGY GOALS - CNBC
Surging natural gas prices have led to a jump in coal use, with plants in Europe and Asia firing back up as temperatures decline and the world grap ...


Saturday, 16 October 21
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED POWER MAY DOUBLE BY 2030 UNDER DRAFT ENERGY PLAN - REUTERS
Vietnam may double the amount of coal-fired electric generation it installs by 2030 under a draft power development plan submitted to the prime min ...


Friday, 15 October 21
AUSTRALIA'S WHITEHAVEN EXPECTS TO BE DEBT-FREE NEXT YEAR AS COAL PRICES SOAR - REUTERS
Australia’s Whitehaven Coal WHC.AX said on Thursday it expects to be debt-free by early 2022, as thermal coal prices surge to record highs on ...


Friday, 15 October 21
WINTER CHILL KEEPS CHINA'S COAL PRICES HIGH, POWER CRUNCH STOKES INFLATION - REUTERS
China coal prices held near record highs on Thursday as cold weather swept into the country’s north and power plants stocked up on the fuel t ...


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