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Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
EIAThe July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. economic activity continues to rise after reaching multiyear lows in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20). The increase in economic activity and easing of the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to rising energy use. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels. This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 7.4% in 2021 and by 5.0% in 2022. We based the U.S. macroeconomic assumptions in this outlook on forecasts by IHS Markit. 
 
EIA's July Short-Term Energy Outlook noted that, Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $73 per barrel (b) in June, up $5/b from May and $33/b higher than in June of last year. In the coming months, we expect that global oil production, largely from OPEC+ members (OPEC and partner nonmember countries), will increase by more than global oil consumption. We expect rising production will reduce the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and keep prices similar to current levels, averaging $72/b during the second half of 2021 (2H21). However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production, along with other supply growth, will outpace growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices. Based on these factors, we expect Brent to average $67/b in 2022.
 
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 617 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 78 MMst (15%) more than in 2020. Rising electricity demand for coal amid higher natural gas prices is driving this production increase. In 2022, we expect coal production to fall by 7 MMst (1%).
 
EIA also forecasts coal’s generation share to rise from 20% in 2020 to 24% this year but to fall to 22% next year. In th meantime, the share of electric power generation produced by natural gas in the United States will average 36% in both 2021 and 2022, down from 39% in 2020. Our forecast for the natural gas share as a generation fuel declines because we expect a higher delivered natural gas price for electricity generators. 


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Recent News

Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA'S COAL-RICH SHANXI BEEFS UP COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
Major coal producers in north China’s Shanxi Province, a leading coal-producing region of the country, have beefed up production to ensure en ...


Tuesday, 26 October 21
ENERGY CRISIS SHOWS COAL IS AN EXPENSIVE AND UNRELIABLE SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION - IEEFA
Any knee-jerk reaction that urges more investment in coal completely misses the point India is teetering on the brink of joining a growing glo ...


Tuesday, 26 October 21
CHINA TO INVESTIGATE ENERGY INDEX PROVIDERS IN BID TO TAME COAL PRICES - REUTERS
China said on Monday it will investigate energy price index providers as it urged coal industry participants to “strictly” meet contrac ...


Tuesday, 26 October 21
THERE IS PLENTY OF COAL AND GAS IN THE WORLD BUT A VOLATILE MARKET IS NOBODY'S FRIEND - IEEFA
Gas will be winding its way out of the energy system   Gas prices are continuing to surge around the world. The cost of gas is at unpr ...


Tuesday, 26 October 21
AUSTRALIA EXPORTED 51.6 MLN TONNES OF COAL TO INDIA IN FIRST 10 MONTHS, 19% OF ALL AUSTRALIAN COAL EXPORTS; CHINA WAS THE DESTINATION FOR JUST 0.7% - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. In 2021 things started pretty badly, but we are seeing increasing signs of ...


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