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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
 A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional individual markets. While previous years’ reports have mentioned “must do better” or “extra classes needed”, even the toughest of examiners would congratulate (tankers aside!?) shipping’s economic performance during the many continued challenges of the pandemic.
Grading the Segments
Our cross-sector ClarkSea Index averaged an encouraging $20,717/day in 1H, up 27% y-o-y and 64% above trend (since 2009, see graph). This also represents the strongest six months for the index since the “heady” days of 2008. The star performer has been the “red hot” container market which has seen record highs, while bulkers also deserve a merit award with their best half year since 2010. LPG earnings were down on 2020 averages but still 21% above trend while LNG, despite some ups and downs, were close to trend. Although there are mitigating circumstances (oil trade is still down 10% on pre-Covid levels and floating storage has “unwound”) tanker earnings averaged their lowest half year period for 30+ years and will be hoping for improvements after the summer. Car carriers have picked up nicely to move 5% above trend (impressive as rates touched all-time lows last year) while Ro-Ro freight has also shown resilience. Offshore oil and gas has improved but still remained ~30% below trend (for a North Sea PSV)
Demand Improvements…
After “losing” ~500mt of trade in 2020, we now estimate that volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels (in May-20 trade was down 12%). Again a special commendation to containers, with a combination of pent up demand, shifts in consumer spending and economic recovery supporting projected trade of 207m TEU this year, up 6% on 2020. Balancing economic recovery, stimulus, further Covid19 waves and uncertainty over the duration of “supportive” disruption, we project over 12bt of total seaborne trade in 2021.
Supply “Favourable”?
In our previous review, we gave shipping supply an “A for effort”, reflecting on an orderbook under 10% of the fleet (it’s still 8%). Fleet growth of 1.7% in 1H (growth of 36m dwt) remains below trend, although newbuild ordering (24m CGT, $55bn) has picked up to its busiest six months since 2014, surpassing full year 2020 orders (although steel prices and currency movements may make similar order intake in 2H more difficult for yards). However, the stellar S&P market achieved “top marks” with all time record transactions (>85m dwt, up 131% on 1H20 and 31% on 2H, and more than double the long term trend!). At this run rate, ~8% of the fleet will change ownership in 2021. We reported 12m dwt of demo, up 14% on 1H-20 but down 12% on 2H-20.
Those Extra Classes …..
With recovering activity, we estimate that shipping’s emissions have edged up slightly to ~840mt and 2.4% of global CO2. Given the “amplified” focus on energy transition and the developments at IMO (and pending announcements from the EU), let’s hope those extra “classes” on “green and tech” we recommended a few years ago have come in handy (over 25% of orders in 1H were for alternative fuelled vessels). Our continued best wishes from Clarksons Research.
Source: Clarksons Research
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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