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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
 Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop of 6.5% in 1Q20 when market demand was dampened by the Covid-19 outbreak. Demand from the industrial sector, the main driver of power consumption growth, surged by 23.9% yoy in 1Q21.Consumption from the tertiary sector and agricultural users also jumped by 28.2% and 26.4%, respectively, during the quarter, Fitch Ratings says in its latest report.
Demand Exceeds Pre-Covid-19Levels
Power demand gained 14.4% in 1Q21 from 1Q19, driven by the industrial sector’s 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector’s 16.5% gain. Demand from agricultural users, which accounted for only 1.1% of total demand, surged by 31.3%in 1Q21 from 1Q19, led by the upgrade of power grids in rural areas.
Higher Contribution from Tertiary Sector
The contribution of the tertiary sector to consumption rose to 17.3% in 1Q21, from 16.7% in 1Q20. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services, which jumped by 26.5% on average in the past two years due to the fast development of big data, cloud computing and internet of things sector. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry shot up by 92.2% on average in 2019 and 2020, the result of faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
Thermal Power Underpins Generation Growth
Power generation rose by 19% yoy in 1Q21, primarily driven by thermal power’s output increase of21.1%, accounting for 73% of total power supply, which was 7pp higher than 2020. This was because of the higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units, and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
Fuel Mix Continues to Improve
The proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China’s fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21, after dropping to below 50% for the first time byend-2020. Fitch Ratings expects the share to drop in 2021, as China is promoting renewable energy to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. China added 23.5GW in power capacity in 1Q21, 55% of which were non-fossil fuels, including 5.33GWin solar power capacity, a 56% yoy gain, and 5.26GW in wind power capacity, a 123% jump. China also added 1.15GW in nuclear power capacity and 1.09GW in hydropower capacity in 1Q21.
Improving Coal-Fired Power Plants’ Flexibility
The report further noted that, some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, which also supply heat and have met environmental protection requirements This will ensure a stable power supply as renew able energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.
Utilisation Hours Improved in1Q21
Utilisation hours (UH) rose by 97 to 915 in 1Q21 from 1Q19 as power demand recovered further. Wind power UH improved by 69 hours to 619 hours, while solar power UH increased to 300 hours, up by 10 hours from1Q19. Yunnan, Sichuan and Jiangsu were the top-three provinces with the highest wind UH, while north-east and north-west China had the highest solar UH.
Thermal and nuclear power UH surged by 165 and 218, respectively, from 1Q20 due to strong consumption growth, higher connection priority for heat-power co-generation in the heating season, and lower output of hydropower, whose UH fell by 21 as a result of lower water flow.
Thermal power capacity installation rose by 10.6GW in 1Q21, including 4.77GW coal-fired power and 2.95GW gas-fired power, some of which were used for peak shaving. We expect renewable energy to continue to drive China’s power capacity installation in the rest of 2021 as the state is pushing for renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Generation capex in 1Q21amounted to CNY79.5 billion, including 49.4% in wind, solar and biomass, 30.8% in hydro and 9.7% in nuclear. Capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1% in 1Q21, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government’s restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
High Coal Prices to Squeeze Power Generating Companies’ Profit
Coal production rose 16% yoy to 970 million tonnes in 1Q21, slower than the 22% growth of coal-fired power output, resulting in higher coal prices. The Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price rose 72.6% yoy to CNY 801/tonne by end April-2021. High coal prices will squeeze power generating companies’ profit and operating cash flow, which will be worsened by a lower coal-fired power tariff due to higher market trading volume.
By: Ms.Zhihua Zhang | Ms. Diana Xia
Fitch Ratings, China
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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