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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch RatingsChina's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from thermal power in the last heating season, Fitch Ratings says. However,  Fitch Ratings further says, we expect renewable energy to continue driving power installation and investment in 2021 as China aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
 
Power demand rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21, exceeding 1Q19 by 14.4%, driven by the industrial sector's 15.3% increase and the tertiary sector's 16.5% gain. Tertiary demand was marked by the rapid consumption growth of information and technology services. Demand from the charging and battery swapping industry also surged on faster growth in the new-energy vehicle sector.
 
Thermal power output increased 21.1% yoy in 1Q21, accounting for 73% of total power supply. This was 7pp higher than the contribution of thermal power to generation in 2020, although the proportion of coal-fired power capacity in China's fuel mix decreased to 48.8% in 1Q21 after dropping to below 50% for the first time by end-2020. This was due to higher output from heating power co-generation thermal units in the heating seasons and lower wind and solar contribution in winter.
 
Non-fossil fuels led installations and investments, accounting for 55% of new power generation capacity and 90% of generation capex in 1Q21, while 1Q21 capex contribution from thermal power fell to 10.1%, from 10.5% in 2020, under the government's restrictions on thermal power installations given the environmental ramifications.
 
China is also improving coal-fired power plants' flexibility. Some provinces, such as Shandong, have extended the service life of some large and efficient coal-fired power units, ensuring a stable power supply as renewable energy is usually affected by the intermittent nature of its source.


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