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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 November 21
WHY THIS MINING ANALYST IS UPBEAT ON THE IRON ORE PRICE FORECAST - MOTLEY FOOL
In many ways, 2021 can be called the year of the iron ore price. Much of the talk of the ASX town this year has revolved around this key economic m ...
Wednesday, 24 November 21
PRICE OF CHINA’S COAL FUTURE DROPS BY 60% AS NATIONWIDE DAILY OUTPUT REACHES OVER 12 MILLION TONS: NDRC - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s daily coal output has now stabilized after reaching over 12 million tons and the price of coal futures has declined to 800 yuan ($125 ...
Friday, 19 November 21
CHINA: COAL SUPPLIES TO STABILIZE FOR COMING COLD SEASON
China is capable of ensuring stable coal supplies this winter and next spring with the increase in coal production and the rising stockpiles at pow ...
Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a ...
Tuesday, 16 November 21
EARNINGS RECOVERY IN INDONESIAN COAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2021, BUT SLOW IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
The recovery in the operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors is likely to slow in 2022, but coal prices s ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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