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Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of uncertainty regarding eco-friendly technology adoption which amplified concerns over the technology and fuelling choices on the newbuilding units. Covid-19 restrictions significantly impacted owners’ appetite for new orders, which coupled with the divided view on the long-term technology implementation caused a severe blow on the shipbuilding industry. At the time of writing, both concerns are still present.
Despite worldwide vaccination, the pandemic remains with lockdown restrictions being imposed around the world. In addition, there is no clear view on which type of fuel will be the next generation one, yet with LNG retrofits gaining a bigger market share week by week. However, today the shipbuilding tanker market activity witness a completely different outlook, with the volume of newbuilding contracts emerging w-o-w being significantly strong and the NB values at levels that we last observed back in 2015. With respect to the latter fact, we could agree that the recent spike in steel prices has supported a large part of newbuilding value increases; nevertheless, with the cost for new investments burdening the owner’s capital, it is evident that the appetite for new vessels is strong.
According to our preliminary data, YTD crude carriers contracting activity in dwt terms is estimated at around 9.6 million which is about +47.7% when compared to the same period last year (6.5 million dwt). The majority of orders that have materialized so far this year referred to VLCC units which account for 71% of the total orders (27 of the total tanker contracting activity of 38 units). If buying interest for crude carrier tonnage continues at the same pace it would not be a surprise to see 2021 contracting activity doubling the previous year volumes (around 15.4 million in dwt terms during 2020). Solely for the purpose of comparison, 2019 total contracting activity is estimated at around 19.6 million dwt with January-May 2019 newbuilding volume at 7.45 million dwt, a time period where the Coronavirus pandemic would stand as a science fiction theory.
As far as the asset values are concerned, average prices for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units to be constructed at top tier yards are estimated at $95.0M, $63.M, and $50.5 million respectively. A picture is worth a thousand words and that can be evident if we take a closer look at page 6 Indicative Newbuilding Prices table where a comparison with average values of the past 3 years can easily be made. Average prices of all sectors are hovering well below today’s values. Again, for the sake of clarity, 2021 average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax newbuilding prices stand at $90.0M, $59.5M, and $49.0 million. It remains to be seen, whether Chinese authorities will manage to curb iron ore prices and subsequently steel values. Such a depreciation on the respective commodities will be reflected on newbuilding values as well; however, if China’s exertion in containing steel prices remains unsuccessful newbuilding prices will appreciate further according to the underlying steel inflationary trend.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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