We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 20 October 21
CHINA COAL HITS RECORD HIGH AMID TIGHT SUPPLIES - REUTERS
China coal prices hit a record high on Tuesday buoyed by a widening power crunch and cold weather despite Beijing’s efforts to bolster supply ...
Wednesday, 20 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IMO 2020, Ballast Water Treatment regulations, Green Recycling, GHG emissions, EEXI, CII, ETS, Fit for 55, Carbon price/levy, the Poseidon Principl ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
SPONGE IRON SECTOR MIGHT REPORT NEGATIVE GROWTH DUE TO COAL CRISIS: SIMA - PTI
The domestic sponge iron industry might report a negative growth in the ongoing December quarter “if the shortage of coal is allowed to conti ...
Tuesday, 19 October 21
COAL INDIA, THE FALL GUY FOR POWER CRISIS - INDIA EXPRESS
The post-Covid economic recovery has led to a major increase in the demand for power, both in India and globally. In India, coal-based power plants ...
Saturday, 16 October 21
SOLAR INSTALLATION SURGE PUTS INDIA ON TRACK TO CAP COAL-FIRED POWER AS EARLY AS 2024 - IEEFA
Recent increase in solar power installations could push coal to peak sooner than expected
If India keeps installing solar capacity a ...
|
|
|
Showing 446 to 450 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
