We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
|
|
|
Showing 651 to 655 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
|
| |
| |
|
