We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
|
|
|
Showing 551 to 555 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
|
| |
| |
|
