We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent retreat from almost 11-year highs is raising the question whether a counter seasonal market drop is in the cards during the 2H of the year in the context of a broader market upcycle.
While the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore.
Iron Ore exports to accelerate in 2H2021; the urge for higher quality iron ore is likely to intensify: China’s iron ore inventories have been destocked by more than 8.0 million tons over the past month amid elevated demand and major iron ore miners running behind their export guidance, likely to trigger a new restocking wave. Forward iron ore prices on the curve, even if spot iron ore prices softened from here, incentivize iron ore miners to accelerate exports during the 2H2021.
So far, China’s emissions regulations on steel production were unsuccessful in containing it. Record high steel mills margins incentivized higher steel production ex. strictly regulated Tangshan with YTD Jan-Apr crude steel production up +15.6% y-o-y. If steel production controls intensify during the second half, this will further increase demand for high quality iron ore, in order to optimize the steel process. In addition, the scrap scramble from steel mills outside China could put a lid on China’s increasing scrap usage in the steel mix in the short term.
Macro indicators continue to be bullish for dry bulk demand in the next quarters: China’s Property new starts - a leading indicator of steel demand – have increased +19.0% YTD in 2021, while April’s y-o-y growth slowed down at +9.3% y-o-y. Any slow down in the growth of new floor space under construction will not immediately translate into lower steel and iron ore demand; developers are likely to accelerate property completions from now on continuing to drive demand.
Other than China, global steel production and demand conditions are robust, reflected by record high steel prices both in the US and Europe. Spot and forward steel prices have surged, giving steel mills the opportunity to hedge at profitable levels, therefore global steel production will continue to expand.
Global manufacturing PMIs are at 10 year cycle highs, despite having softened during April and lead demand for commodities. Oil prices have been lagging the rise in other commodities and are projected to increase significantly over the next two quarters, which could provide further support to the dry bulk market via - and not limited to - the bunker-$ per ton freight- speed relation. Fundamentals of other dry bulk commodities are also robust, with electricity generation set to accelerate over the summer in addition to increased industrial production, while China’s domestic coal production is underperforming amid mine safety checks.
Early signs of credit tightening: Following a record high stimulus over the previous year, latest credit growth figures in China indicate a slow-down in credit supply during April, however as long as inflation at the producers level accelerates the tightening impact is muted in our view. China’s potential deleveraging from here should not be expected to have a negative effect on dry bulk commodities demand, until credit tightening starts to interfere with producers’ profit margins.
Last but not least, China’s political tension with Australia is more likely to translate into higher ton-miles in the medium term, with Atlantic production of high-quality iron ore and coal substituting for any potential loss of Australia’s market share. In the longer term, China’s 14th year plan that calls for an increase of electric arc furnaces (scrap) in steel production to 15-20% by 2025 and self sufficiency share of iron ore above 45% will certainly have an impact in the way iron ore is procured with China having higher control over both supply and iron ore prices.
by Tamara Apostolou,
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
|
|
|
Showing 521 to 525 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
|
| |
| |
|
