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Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
IntermodalOver the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At the time of writing the vessel has been refloated allowing the traffic to resume, albeit the lineup of congestion built up significantly since the incident and may take days to resume to normal levels. More than 450 vessels of all types were waiting at the peak of congestion on either side of the canal to pass, while there were reported cases of ships ordered to deviate through the Cape of Good Hope.
 
The sectors impacted the most from this situation are those of tankers and containers.
 
We immediately saw an increase in tanker freight rates on routes which are directly related to the Suez Canal passage, with the increase in some cases being over 80.0% since the accident in 23rd March. The impact was immediate on Suezmax, with Aframax following, while the impact on LR2 and LR1s clean related trades could spill over into the next month, despite the situation being resolved.
 
The container sector has also been impacted as despite the refloating it is expected that it will take days for the backlog of vessels to pass the canal, while with the containers supply chain already strained, congestion at discharging ports could drive container freight rates back up after their recent easing from close to record high levels.
 
The impact in the dry bulk sector was expected to be lesser, however certain trades were at “risk”. More specifically mainly grain and iron ore trades out of Black Sea and USA/North Atlantic to the Far East are passing through the canal. More than 95 bulkers were waiting at the canal at the peak of the crisis and despite the fact that we didn’t see an immediate impact on freight, increased congestion when they discharge East might prompt an increase in rates later on.
 
Even one week of blockage has had an impact in commodities trading, adding to the ton miles through the deviation of Cape of Good Hope for those vessels that decided to do so. Supply chain disruptions via delivery delays and increased congestion at discharging ports at a 2nd stage are expected to extend well beyond the next week. Finally, it is worth noting that such incident might put back into focus the importance of economies of scale of the larger vessel classes, particularly in an increased bunkers consumption context that might be triggered and the relevant asset value differences revisited.

By Vasilis Moiris, 
SnP Broker
 
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima

Mr.George Panagopoulos


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
 
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