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Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up we usually observe demolition activity declining and vice versa, while the level of scrapping eventually contributes to a new market equilibrium.
In order for demolition activity to be impacted in either direction, market expectations for the medium term have to be aligned with actual freight market conditions and thus demolition activity reacts with some time lag to the current freight market environment. The decision to sell a vessel for scrap is not only driven by the state of the market cycle and expectations, but to a great extent by the offered scrap price at the time vs the price fetched at the 2nd hand market.
As we stand, owners of vintage tonnage are obviously trying to exploit the current sound performance across all Dry Bulk & Container segments and prefer to keep their vessels for further trading rather than turning to beach yards. Despite positive market conditions in these two segments, possible demolition candidates could be those old units that have to be docked for surveys and their Owners are not in favor of bearing this cost, or the parties that are looking for a fleet renewal. Still, in order to make the demolition decision tempting for them, scrap prices should rise further. Already, scrap prices have risen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and are up more than 29% compared to last year.
So far during Q1 2021, the freight market and expectations in the Dry Bulk & containers segment have been extremely optimistic, whilst the wet market is still to recover from the severe downturn experienced as a result of oil supply cuts and soft demand amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. YTD dry bulk scrapping rate in dwt terms is estimated -21% below the same period last year, while tankers scrapping is estimated +91.1% y-o-y.
However, taking a closer look at the tankers sold for scrap, we would expect that the current market conditions (with VLCC rates suppressed since the beginning of the year and recently turning negative) would favor the larger crude carriers towards scrap yards. Instead, since the beginning of the year, about 11 vessels were confirmed to be scrapped with half of them being Handysize or MR tankers, while the rest consist mainly of Aframax, two shuttle tankers and no VLCCs.
We could argue that maybe owners of the larger crude tankers have enough buffer from last year’s stellar earnings amid floating storage economics skyrocketing and thus can sustain adverse market conditions, but also expect that the market will turn a corner should OPEC+ reverses oil supply cuts in the next months. We could also argue that owners prefer to sell their vessels in the 2nd hand market, as the premium they are currently getting over selling them for scrap is quite substantial.
While scrap prices are expected to rise further during the 2H of the year amid increased demand for scrap restocking, it remains to be seen how all of the above factors will impact demolition activity across the different shipping segments, with expectations for tanker scrapping activity increasing nonetheless coming in higher.
By George Kallianiotis,
Valuation Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The second wave of COVID-19 is now a reality; offices are closing again, and stricter rules and regulations are being implemented in public spaces. ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.82 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 127.49 points Monday, up 0.82 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 20 October 20
BIMCO 'SHIPLEASE' TERM SHEET - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The ever-growing importance of sale and leaseback transactions as an alternative to financing ships by way of loan, makes ...
Friday, 16 October 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF OF K GENCO'S INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 715,000 MT MIN. 5,700 NAR COAL FOR DECEMBER
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 715,000& ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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