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Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up we usually observe demolition activity declining and vice versa, while the level of scrapping eventually contributes to a new market equilibrium.
In order for demolition activity to be impacted in either direction, market expectations for the medium term have to be aligned with actual freight market conditions and thus demolition activity reacts with some time lag to the current freight market environment. The decision to sell a vessel for scrap is not only driven by the state of the market cycle and expectations, but to a great extent by the offered scrap price at the time vs the price fetched at the 2nd hand market.
As we stand, owners of vintage tonnage are obviously trying to exploit the current sound performance across all Dry Bulk & Container segments and prefer to keep their vessels for further trading rather than turning to beach yards. Despite positive market conditions in these two segments, possible demolition candidates could be those old units that have to be docked for surveys and their Owners are not in favor of bearing this cost, or the parties that are looking for a fleet renewal. Still, in order to make the demolition decision tempting for them, scrap prices should rise further. Already, scrap prices have risen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and are up more than 29% compared to last year.
So far during Q1 2021, the freight market and expectations in the Dry Bulk & containers segment have been extremely optimistic, whilst the wet market is still to recover from the severe downturn experienced as a result of oil supply cuts and soft demand amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. YTD dry bulk scrapping rate in dwt terms is estimated -21% below the same period last year, while tankers scrapping is estimated +91.1% y-o-y.
However, taking a closer look at the tankers sold for scrap, we would expect that the current market conditions (with VLCC rates suppressed since the beginning of the year and recently turning negative) would favor the larger crude carriers towards scrap yards. Instead, since the beginning of the year, about 11 vessels were confirmed to be scrapped with half of them being Handysize or MR tankers, while the rest consist mainly of Aframax, two shuttle tankers and no VLCCs.
We could argue that maybe owners of the larger crude tankers have enough buffer from last year’s stellar earnings amid floating storage economics skyrocketing and thus can sustain adverse market conditions, but also expect that the market will turn a corner should OPEC+ reverses oil supply cuts in the next months. We could also argue that owners prefer to sell their vessels in the 2nd hand market, as the premium they are currently getting over selling them for scrap is quite substantial.
While scrap prices are expected to rise further during the 2H of the year amid increased demand for scrap restocking, it remains to be seen how all of the above factors will impact demolition activity across the different shipping segments, with expectations for tanker scrapping activity increasing nonetheless coming in higher.
By George Kallianiotis,
Valuation Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
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Wednesday, 25 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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