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Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up we usually observe demolition activity declining and vice versa, while the level of scrapping eventually contributes to a new market equilibrium.
In order for demolition activity to be impacted in either direction, market expectations for the medium term have to be aligned with actual freight market conditions and thus demolition activity reacts with some time lag to the current freight market environment. The decision to sell a vessel for scrap is not only driven by the state of the market cycle and expectations, but to a great extent by the offered scrap price at the time vs the price fetched at the 2nd hand market.
As we stand, owners of vintage tonnage are obviously trying to exploit the current sound performance across all Dry Bulk & Container segments and prefer to keep their vessels for further trading rather than turning to beach yards. Despite positive market conditions in these two segments, possible demolition candidates could be those old units that have to be docked for surveys and their Owners are not in favor of bearing this cost, or the parties that are looking for a fleet renewal. Still, in order to make the demolition decision tempting for them, scrap prices should rise further. Already, scrap prices have risen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and are up more than 29% compared to last year.
So far during Q1 2021, the freight market and expectations in the Dry Bulk & containers segment have been extremely optimistic, whilst the wet market is still to recover from the severe downturn experienced as a result of oil supply cuts and soft demand amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. YTD dry bulk scrapping rate in dwt terms is estimated -21% below the same period last year, while tankers scrapping is estimated +91.1% y-o-y.
However, taking a closer look at the tankers sold for scrap, we would expect that the current market conditions (with VLCC rates suppressed since the beginning of the year and recently turning negative) would favor the larger crude carriers towards scrap yards. Instead, since the beginning of the year, about 11 vessels were confirmed to be scrapped with half of them being Handysize or MR tankers, while the rest consist mainly of Aframax, two shuttle tankers and no VLCCs.
We could argue that maybe owners of the larger crude tankers have enough buffer from last year’s stellar earnings amid floating storage economics skyrocketing and thus can sustain adverse market conditions, but also expect that the market will turn a corner should OPEC+ reverses oil supply cuts in the next months. We could also argue that owners prefer to sell their vessels in the 2nd hand market, as the premium they are currently getting over selling them for scrap is quite substantial.
While scrap prices are expected to rise further during the 2H of the year amid increased demand for scrap restocking, it remains to be seen how all of the above factors will impact demolition activity across the different shipping segments, with expectations for tanker scrapping activity increasing nonetheless coming in higher.
By George Kallianiotis,
Valuation Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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