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Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up we usually observe demolition activity declining and vice versa, while the level of scrapping eventually contributes to a new market equilibrium.
In order for demolition activity to be impacted in either direction, market expectations for the medium term have to be aligned with actual freight market conditions and thus demolition activity reacts with some time lag to the current freight market environment. The decision to sell a vessel for scrap is not only driven by the state of the market cycle and expectations, but to a great extent by the offered scrap price at the time vs the price fetched at the 2nd hand market.
As we stand, owners of vintage tonnage are obviously trying to exploit the current sound performance across all Dry Bulk & Container segments and prefer to keep their vessels for further trading rather than turning to beach yards. Despite positive market conditions in these two segments, possible demolition candidates could be those old units that have to be docked for surveys and their Owners are not in favor of bearing this cost, or the parties that are looking for a fleet renewal. Still, in order to make the demolition decision tempting for them, scrap prices should rise further. Already, scrap prices have risen more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and are up more than 29% compared to last year.
So far during Q1 2021, the freight market and expectations in the Dry Bulk & containers segment have been extremely optimistic, whilst the wet market is still to recover from the severe downturn experienced as a result of oil supply cuts and soft demand amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. YTD dry bulk scrapping rate in dwt terms is estimated -21% below the same period last year, while tankers scrapping is estimated +91.1% y-o-y.
However, taking a closer look at the tankers sold for scrap, we would expect that the current market conditions (with VLCC rates suppressed since the beginning of the year and recently turning negative) would favor the larger crude carriers towards scrap yards. Instead, since the beginning of the year, about 11 vessels were confirmed to be scrapped with half of them being Handysize or MR tankers, while the rest consist mainly of Aframax, two shuttle tankers and no VLCCs.
We could argue that maybe owners of the larger crude tankers have enough buffer from last year’s stellar earnings amid floating storage economics skyrocketing and thus can sustain adverse market conditions, but also expect that the market will turn a corner should OPEC+ reverses oil supply cuts in the next months. We could also argue that owners prefer to sell their vessels in the 2nd hand market, as the premium they are currently getting over selling them for scrap is quite substantial.
While scrap prices are expected to rise further during the 2H of the year amid increased demand for scrap restocking, it remains to be seen how all of the above factors will impact demolition activity across the different shipping segments, with expectations for tanker scrapping activity increasing nonetheless coming in higher.
By George Kallianiotis,
Valuation Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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