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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
ing-logoNewcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Meanwhile, domestic thermal coal prices in China have fallen, and so these weaker prices should weigh on the seaborne market, says  ING.
 
According to ING, Newcastle coal will average US$70/t over 2021, although ING suspects the highs are behind us for the year already, with the much colder weather seen this winter having proved supportive for demand. The key risk for the coal market remains the tensions between China and Australia, and price action will also depend on how this situation develops.
 
AUD has been impacted more by iron ore prices than by coal prices, and this should continue to be the case moving on. As highlighted above, dynamics in the coal market will be heavily dependent on the China-Australia tensions (China moved to ban Australian coal in 2020). Any developments in the trade relationship between the two countries would likely impact AUD sentiment directly, and only partially through the coal channel, further said ING.
 
Despite South Africa’s coal rents amounting to approximately 2.4% of GDP (the third highest in the world), coal prices have not had a significant correlation with ZAR recently. This may suggest that only wide moves in coal prices may have a tangible impact on the currency, which is by the way showing some nominal and real undervaluation.  ING sees ZAR as one of the most vulnerable EM currencies to rising UST yields given as its fundamentals not show material improvement vs most of its EM peers.


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