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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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