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Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of. The increased buying interest was evident somehow during September to November of 2020 but that was not a surprise, as it is somehow a seasonal trend for the dry SnP market to be active during q4 of every calendar year. What we have not seen for a long time (maybe since December 2013) was non-stop activity during December and January.
And this is the interesting part now. Over the past 11 years, BDI during every January recorded losses to December of the previous year. On average over the above period, BDI has dropped by -26.0% during January, with Capesize leading the declines. This January was different, with BDI exhibiting a counter-seasonal increase to December (+33.3% m-o-m) for the first time since January 2009, when the index had increased by +21.7% m-o-m. This shift in seasonal dynamics was largely Capesize driven both in 2009 and now, with Cape 5TC in Jan 2021 reaching an all-time high for January and a 7 year high for any Q1 so far.
Since the last week of January, BCI has been on a downward trend, with the Cape 5TC recently correcting below Panamax and Supramax, but still at relatively high levels for this time of year. With the BPI and BSI at multi-year high for this time of year at 1689 and 1149 points respectively (as of 8/feb) buyers appetite seems non-stop. Apart from Handysizes 28k to 32k dwt for which asset values increases are relatively lower, all the other sizes are getting significantly higher numbers.
The Pana/Kamsarmax SnP market particularly has been very firm. In Sep 2020, Panamax MV ELENA II 06’blt with survey due in Q1,2021 concluded at low $8s million; in November, same age MV APOLO sold for low $9s mil basis survey due 01/2021 and just now the 06’ blt MV AJAX got low $10s mil again with surveys due promptly. We saw similar increases also in 12’ blt units with MV CORAL AMBER 78k dwt BWTS fitted getting mid-high $14s in December and sister ship CORAL AMETHYST without BWTS getting $16/low 16s mil by the end of January. For younger tonnage with electronic engines Japanese built we have not seen much activity, with the last being the sale of the MV SAKIZAYA NOBLE blt 17’ at $25.5m with balance of TC attached but clearly a potential buyer cannot repeat a deal at the same levels. Generally, the supply of such modern ships in the market has been limited for some time amid sellers holding back for much better numbers.
Moving on Capes, one notable sale is the MV Ocean Compass (180k/06’blt Japan), which sold in January 2021 at low 17s million, whereas in September the MV Lowlands Erica (176k/07’blt Japan) was sold for about $15m. As it is today, with the lack of many candidates openly in the market for sale and considering all the buying enquiries coupled with many unsolicited indications in attempt to develop private off-market candidates, we would not rule out further increase on prices if the earnings are maintained at the levels we see today. However, considering that the BCI is trading at $12,000/day currently and Panamax Tess 82 index is trading at $15,000/day, we believe that this can’t be maintained for too long and we hope that the CPI will rise and the long anticipated good market will become reality.
By Costas Hardalis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
Wednesday, 03 February 21
INDONESIA TO EXPORT 395 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2021 - ESDM
Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources shows that, Indonesia is planning to produce 550 million Ton of coal in 2021 and as of t ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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