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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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