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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Monday, 24 August 20
A COMBINATION OF DEVELOPMENTS DROVE THE FALLOFF COAL PRICES - CHIEF ECONOMIST’ OFFICE, AUSTRALIA
China, rising domestic production combined with subdued power demand;
India, a lockdown coupled with government directives that fav ...
Monday, 24 August 20
AUSTRALIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP FROM AN ESTIMATED $20 BILLION IN 2019-20 TO $16 BILLION IN 2020-21: REPORT
Thermal coal spot prices have fallen sharply as the impact of COVID-19 drives a contraction in seaborne trade for only the second time this century ...
Saturday, 22 August 20
REPORT SEES INDIA’S RELIANCE ON THERMAL POWER DROPPING TO 50% IN 2021, 43% IN 2026 - ET ENERGY | IEEFA
India’s dependence on thermal power will reduce to 50 per cent by 2021-22 and 43 per cent by 2026-27 on the back of renewable energy (RE) cap ...
Friday, 21 August 20
323 MILLION ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL BE ON THE ROADS BY 2040 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to reach 45 million units per year by 2040, with a total global EV stock of 323 million, according to new ...
Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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