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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Wednesday, 02 September 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE DIVES FURTHER IN SEPTEMBER DUE TO SUBDUED DEMAND & GLOBAL OVERSUPPLY
Subdued demand & global oversupply pushed down this month's HBA
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
WHY INDIA CAN'T MATCH THE GULF REGION'S RECORD-LOW SOLAR TARIFFS - IEEFA
5-10% annual decline in tariffs estimated for the next decade
A number of countries in the Gulf region have set record-low prices for solar in ...
Tuesday, 01 September 20
COVID-19 PUSHES US LNG INTO A TIGHT SPOT - DREWRY
The pandemic-led weak projections for economic growth will derail US LNG exports in full-year 2020 with the country also losing ground in the long ...
Monday, 31 August 20
DEFECTIVE PASSAGE PLANNING: UNSEAWORTHINESS OR A NAVIGATIONAL DECISION? THE CMA CGM LIBRA QUESTION SAILS ON TO THE UK SUPREME COURT - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The UK Supreme Court has granted leave to appeal the recent decision in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG ( ...
Sunday, 30 August 20
PANAMAX - THIS WEEK THE DEMAND HAS PICKED UP, BUT THE TONNAGE LIST IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
More or less flat from previous week, with cape rates moving from US$ 19,500 to 18,900 on average. West Australia however being more ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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